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Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress in Washington, D.C., a left-wing think tank with close ties to the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama. His work there specializes on Iraq, national security, terrorism and politics in the Middle East. The Spiegel Online interview with Mr. Katulis follows: High turnout in the recent Iraqi election is fueling hope that stability in the war-torn country may not be far off. But the challenges Iraq faces are still considerable. In a Spiegel Online interview, Iraq expert Brian Katulis warns that the country must act decisively to ensure its own future before the United States finishes its planned withdrawal in 2011. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Initial reports on the parliamentary elections in Iraq have been encouraging. Sixty-two percent of the electorate cast their ballots. This is slightly lower than it was in 2005 but, given the recent spate of violence, still significant. Was Sunday a good day for Iraq's democracy? Brian Katulis: Election Day was a very good day for Iraq. The real test will come in the coming months. For Iraq's democracy to take real root, the country's leaders need to move forward on resolving power-sharing disputes and protecting the rights of all citizens, especially religious minorities, such as Christians, who have faced tremendous persecution in many parts of the country. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Final election results are not expected for several days, if not weeks. Is it likely that a potential election cliffhanger could lead to more violence? Katulis: Uncertainty about the elections could fuel more tensions on the ground. Since the country has been flooded with weapons over the past six years - with many of them going to militias and other groups outside of the Iraqi security forces - a danger exists that some political groups might try to use these weapons to settle political scores. But I doubt violence would return to (the level it was at during) the ugly days of Iraq's civil war, in 2006 and 2007. How the Iraqi security forces, including certain divisions of the Iraqi army, react to the election results is something many Iraq-watchers are monitoring. SPIEGEL ONLINE: A lot will depend on the willingness of the election's losers to accept its results. How do you think people will react if the election is contested? Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who seems to be trailing current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has already indicated he would accuse the other side of fraud. Katulis: In many early elections in countries undergoing political transitions, various parties and candidates dispute the legitimacy of the results. So, I'm not surprised by early complaints, and I suspect there will be many more to come. The question is whether Iraq's institutions, including the electoral commission and the judiciary, deal with such complaints in a transparent and efficient manner. SPIEGEL ONLINE: Will the new divide between Shiites, who mostly voted for Maliki, and Sunnis, who largely backed Allawi, exacerbate divisions within the country?
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